Democrats worried about polls undercounting Donald Trump’s support
Democrats are increasingly worried that pollsters are undercounting Donald Trump’s voter support, rating his prospects of winning November’s presidential election as much higher than headline opinion polling figures suggest. 美国民主党人越来越担心，民调机构低估了唐纳德·特朗普的选民支持率，认为他赢得11月总统大选的可能性远高于头条民意调查数据所显示的。While most national surveys show consistent, though moderate, leads for Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee, some supporters are unnerved by the small margin of her advantage in three northern battlegrounds – Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin – which are deemed must-wins in her quest for the White House. 虽然大多数全国性调查显示，美国民主党提名人卡玛拉·哈里斯的支持率持续领先，尽管幅度适中，但她在三个北部关键州——宾夕法尼亚州、密歇根州和威斯康星州的微弱优势让一些支持者感到不安，而这三个州是她竞选白宫的必胜之地。Although some polls have shown the vice-president with leads of between four and six points in Pennsylvania – generally judged the most important swing state – others show Trump trailing by smaller deficits. Narrower gaps separate the two in Michigan and Wisconsin, where Harris’s lead is just 1 or 2%, according to several different recent polls. 尽管一些民调显示美国副总统在宾夕法尼亚州领先四到六个百分点——这一州通常被认为是最重要的摇摆州——但其他民调显示特朗普的落后幅度较小。在密歇根州和威斯康星州，哈里斯的领先优势更小，根据几项最近的民调，她只领先1%或2%。Underpinning Democrats’ fears is the knowledge that Trump greatly out-performed predictions in all three states in 2016, when he narrowly won them en route to his election triumph over Hillary Clinton, and in 2020, when he was pipped by Joe Biden by far smaller margins than forecast. 美国民主党人担忧的基础是，特朗普在2016年大选中在这三个州表现远超预期，他以微弱优势赢得这些州，并击败希拉里·克林顿。而在2020年，他也仅以远小于预期的差距败给乔·拜登。The worries are compounded by the latest New York Times/Siena poll, which records Trump performing more robustly in three Sun belt battleground states – Georgia, Arizona and North Carolina – than he has in weeks. 最新的《纽约时报》/锡耶纳民调加剧了这些担忧，该民调记录显示，特朗普在三大“阳光地带”关键州——佐治亚州、亚利桑那州和北卡罗来纳州的表现比前几周更为强劲。The survey shows the Republican nominee leading by five points – 50 to 45% – in Arizona, which Biden won by just over 10,000 votes in 2020, and four points – 49 to 45% – in Georgia, which was won by the president by a similar margin. In North Carolina, where Trump is trying to avoid being tarred by revelations over past comments by Mark Robinson, the GOP’s candidate for governor, he has a smaller advantage, 49 to 47%. 调查显示，美国共和党提名人在亚利桑那州领先5个百分点——50%对45%——该州在2020年拜登仅以1万多票的优势获胜；在佐治亚州领先4个百分点——49%对45%——拜登也是以类似差距获胜。在北卡罗来纳州，特朗普试图避免受到共和党州长候选人马克·罗宾逊过去言论的影响，他的优势较小，为49%对47%。Putting the Democrats’ worries into perspective are projections showing that Trump will win all seven designated battleground states – the seventh being Nevada – if he outstrips polling predictions by the same margins he achieved in losing the 2020 election. 从预测来看，如果特朗普在此次大选中超越民调预测的幅度与他2020年败选时相同，那么他将赢得所有七个指定的关键州——第七个州是内华达州——这进一步加剧了民主党人的担忧。A separate projection by Focaldata – using a model that takes into account different demographic factors in determining the likelihood that certain cohorts will vote – reduces Harris’s lead by an average of 2.4% across swing states. Focaldata的另一项预测使用了考虑不同人口因素的模型来确定某些群体的投票可能性，结果显示哈里斯在摇摆州的领先优势平均减少了2.4%。